El Niño and its Impact on India’s Agriculture
How the Super El Niño is affecting India’s agriculture and food system in 2026, and will continue to do so in 2027
India’s 2026 monsoon delivered 12.6% below-average rainfall, its weakest in over a decade, as El Niño strengthened in the Pacific. The sharpest effects are expected in early to mid-2027, putting the rabi season, water availability and food prices at risk. Developed with The Metropolitan Institute, this white paper explains what this means for India’s agriculture and food system. It also includes a district-level risk and vulnerability assessment for Maharashtra.
Assessment findings:
Structural vulnerability sets the ceiling of potential damage, but a realised climate hazard (rainfall deficit) decides where it actually lands. Early warning needs both baseline indices and real-time seasonal monitoring.
- Structural vulnerability is concentrated in Marathwada and western Vidarbha, where rainfed farming dominates and socio-economic buffers are thin.
- Several structurally fragile districts, including Nandurbar, Jalna, Hingoli, Beed, Amaravati and Akola, became high-risk zones in 2026 once the rainfall deficit hit.
- Solapur, only moderately vulnerable structurally, emerged as high-risk, showing that a severe local deficit can push even moderately resilient districts into crisis.
Key recommendations:
- Adopt sub-district climate risk assessments so relief and adaptation resources are targeted, not spread uniformly.
- Scale watershed management and community water budgets that include livestock, women and marginal households.
- Pursue block-level crop diversification backed by local processing, procurement and FPO networks.
- Widen PMFBY coverage for non-loanee farmers, pilot parametric insurance, and extend protection to landless and non-farm workers.
- Create a ring-fenced climate adaptation fund and dedicated climate resilience cells at state and district level.
